Help & FAQ

w4rn is a macro risk cockpit for crypto. It reads the market's backdrop — credit stress, the dollar, rates, funding and sentiment — and turns it into calibrated, honestly-scored estimates of drawdown and volatility risk across the major crypto assets, with a plain-language Learn layer that explains every number. It helps you understand the conditions you're trading into.

People who are newer to crypto and want to understand market risk before they trade, and experienced traders who want a calibrated, honest second opinion on the risk backdrop. It is built to teach, not to tell you what to buy.

No — you can read the free Overview for the example coin without signing up. An account lets you save your progress in the Learn layer, set up alerts, and (with Pro) unlock the forecast, all assets, the macro backdrop and the API.

Not to read the market model. A wallet only matters if you choose to pay for Pro, which is priced in USD and paid in crypto (USDC).

SOL, BTC, ETH and over 20 more liquid coins. Switch the anchor and the candles, forecast and risk synthesis all re-point to that asset. The free tier shows the example coin; Pro unlocks the full anchor switcher.

Start with the Overview: the market-state and stress read tell you the current risk backdrop. The forecast card gives the calibrated drawdown and volatility outlook (with its AUC). The macro backdrop shows what's driving it. Hover any metric for a plain-language explanation, or open the Learn tab for the full course.

No. w4rn is a research and education tool that estimates market risk. It does not tell you what to buy or sell, it does not predict prices, and nothing on the site is financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research.

No. We're explicit about this: the direction of the next move is close to a coin flip once you account for fees, and we don't pretend otherwise. What is forecastable is the size and danger of moves — that's what we estimate. (More in our blog: why you can't predict direction but can read risk.)

Fair question. Those are the model's full return distribution — up / flat / down — shown so you see both sides, not a directional call. They come out close to symmetric on purpose: the up/down split has essentially no out-of-sample skill (~a coin flip), which is exactly why we don't sell it as a signal. The forecasts we actually stand behind — the ones with measured skill — are the risk reads: drawdown probability and the volatility outlook. Showing the distribution is how we prove direction isn't predictable, rather than hide it.

A calibrated probability that the asset has a sharp down-move over a short horizon — a gauge for when to brace and size down. It's a probability, not a promise. See what is drawdown risk.

An estimate of whether the coming period is likely to be more volatile than usual (in either direction). It's the model's strongest read, and the most useful for sizing and risk management. See volatility regimes explained.

We can't promise that, and we won't. Our own walk-forward backtest found the forecast is a risk gauge, not a tradeable edge — it helps you manage risk, not beat the market. Crypto is volatile and you can lose money.

We give you the data, the analysis, and a plain-language interpretation of the market's risk — what's calm, what's stressed, and where the model has skill (and where it doesn't). Different parts matter to different people: a long-term holder, a short-term trader and someone waiting to buy each care about different readings, and not every series will be relevant to you. What you do with it is your call — w4rn informs your decisions, it doesn't make them. It's a risk lens, not instructions, and never financial advice.

We publish the out-of-sample AUC next to every forecast. The volatility-regime read is the strongest (AUC roughly 0.6 to 0.7 across assets); the drawdown read is weaker and we say so. Magnitude is more forecastable than direction — and direction mostly isn't.

AUC scores how well the model separates risky periods from calm ones: 0.5 is a coin flip, 1.0 is perfect. Honest models live in between — around 0.6 to 0.7 is a real, useful edge. We show the out-of-sample AUC. See what AUC means.

A calibrated model's probabilities mean what they say: when it says 30%, those events happen about 30% of the time. We Platt-calibrate the forecasts so the numbers are trustworthy, not just rank-ordered.

Because an honest risk tool should. We'd rather show you a real 0.62 than a flattering number that falls apart live. Showing the skill — and its limits — is the whole point.

Free and open sources only — public market data plus open macro series (credit, rates, the dollar, funding, sentiment). No paid feed is required for the core read.

The macro panel refreshes daily and the risk read re-scores through the day. Each forecast shows how fresh its inputs are.

The wider financial conditions that quietly drive crypto risk — credit spreads, the dollar, rates, funding and sentiment. We test each series out-of-sample and lean only on the ones that genuinely lead. See reading the macro backdrop.

A calibrated AI/ML ensemble trained on free and open market data, scored strictly out-of-sample so the numbers can't flatter themselves. We trust the method, not the hype.

Free gives you the market-risk read (state + stress) on the example coin, the price chart, and Learn Level 1 (the foundations). Pro unlocks the AI/ML drawdown + volatility forecast on every coin, all assets, the full macro backdrop and Metrics catalogue, risk alerts, every Learn level, and the stable Pro API.

Pro is a single fair annual price — no monthly churn. The live price is shown on the pricing section of the homepage. We're built on free + open data, so it's priced to be useful for years.

Pro is priced in USD and paid in crypto (USDC) — no cards. Sign in, then upgrade from the cockpit; you'll be sent to a hosted crypto checkout, and Pro activates automatically once the payment confirms on-chain.

No. The annual pass does not auto-renew — there's nothing to cancel. It simply lapses a year after purchase and you return to the free tier, so you're never charged by surprise.

All sales are final. Because access is granted immediately and crypto payments can't be reversed, we don't offer refunds — please use the free tier to make sure w4rn fits you first. See our refund policy. If you hit a genuine billing error, contact us and we'll make it right.

You return to the free tier — nothing is deleted. Your account, Learn progress and settings stay; you just lose the Pro-only views until you renew.

Click Sign in on the app and choose Create account — just an email and a password (at least 8 characters). That's it.

Yes. From your Account page you can enable TOTP two-factor auth with any authenticator app (Google Authenticator, Authy, 1Password, …). We strongly recommend it.

Use the “Forgot password?” link on the sign-in screen. We'll email you a secure, single-use reset link (when email is enabled on the deployment).

Passwords are stored only as salted hashes (never in the clear), sessions are random tokens, and the public app is fully isolated from any trading systems. We ask only for an email so we can reach you about your account and security.

Yes — set your timezone on the Account page so timestamps read in your local zone.

A stable, read-only HTTP API that serves the full market-model data (the same the cockpit reads) so you can build your own dashboards, bots or research on top of it. It's a Pro feature.

On the API page (Pro account), mint a key — it's shown once, so store it safely. Send it as a Bearer token against the /api/v1 endpoints.

Each key has a per-minute burst cap and a daily volume cap; every response carries the IETF RateLimit headers so you always know where you stand, and a 429 tells you which cap you hit and when to retry.

Yes. /api/v1 is a stable contract: changes are additive only, and any future breaking version ships alongside v1 with a deprecation window (Deprecation / Sunset headers) of at least six months.

Risk alerts: a message when the model flags a regime flip or a rising drawdown probability, so you don't have to sit and watch the screen. Delivery is a Pro feature.

Open the Messages tab, link your Telegram (one tap via a deep link), and choose what to be alerted on. Alerts then arrive in Telegram.

No. Alerts fire on a genuine crossing and are debounced (a cooldown between repeats), so you get the signal, not a stream of noise.