Credit spreads, the dollar, rates and funding quietly drive crypto risk. A plain-language tour of the macro backdrop and how much it really predicts.
Direction is close to a coin flip; magnitude and risk are not. Here's why that distinction is the whole point of a risk tool, and how to trade with it.
AUC is a one-number score of how well a model separates risky from calm. Here's what it means in plain language and why an honest tool always shows it.
Markets switch between calm and stormy regimes. Learn what a volatility regime is, why magnitude is more forecastable than direction, and how to use it.
Drawdown risk is the chance of a sharp drop from here. Here's what it means, why it's more useful than a price target, and how to read it before you trade.