Gold scores 0.511 against SOL drawdown risk over 1,484 days. Split by year the relationship flips sign with the narrative — 0.315 in 2021, 0.585 in 2023.
Scored out-of-sample, the VIX lands at 0.537 against SOL drawdown risk. Then you split it by year and the skill vanishes. Here is how pooling manufactures it.
The DXY scores 0.494 against SOL drawdown risk over 1,484 days. Its two best years are the two most recent — which is exactly what makes it dangerous.
The most-watched sentiment gauge in crypto, scored out-of-sample against SOL drawdown risk over 2,156 days. It lands at 0.505. Here is the full record.
A calibrated model's 30% means 30%. What calibration is, how it differs from ranking skill (AUC), and how to judge a probability forecast fairly.
Credit spreads, the dollar, rates and funding quietly drive crypto risk. A plain-language tour of the macro backdrop and how much it really predicts.
Direction is close to a coin flip; magnitude and risk are not. Here's why that distinction is the whole point of a risk tool, and how to trade with it.
AUC is a one-number score of how well a model separates risky from calm. Here's what it means in plain language and why an honest tool always shows it.
Markets switch between calm and stormy regimes. Learn what a volatility regime is, why magnitude is more forecastable than direction, and how to use it.
Drawdown risk is the chance of a sharp drop from here. Here's what it means, why it's more useful than a price target, and how to read it before you trade.