Since 2017, bitcoin moved about a third less on weekends than on weekdays, in every year and for all 25 coins we track. The numbers and the likely reasons.
Bitcoin's last two bear markets fell for about a year (364 and 378 days) and took 1,074 and 847 days to regain the high. The record, and where 2026 stands.
Ten times since 2017 bitcoin fell 20% or more below a previous high. The two deepest took 1,074 and 847 days to recover. The full record, with the maths.
Fed funds rate vs bitcoin drawdown risk: AUC 0.414 over 3,312 days — the furthest below a coin flip in this series, as if hikes were safe. Split by year it swings from 0.346 to 0.661, and the swings are the calendar, not the Fed.
Gold scores 0.537 against bitcoin drawdown risk over 2,280 days — and the pooled number hides a sign that has flipped twice in ten years. 0.342 in 2019, 0.614 in 2020, 0.329 in 2021, 0.610 in 2023.
Scored out-of-sample against bitcoin drawdown risk over 2,281 days, the VIX lands at 0.490 — a coin flip pooled and a coin flip year by year. In 2022, when the two crashed together, it scored 0.405.
The DXY scores 0.451 against bitcoin drawdown risk over 2,281 days. It worked in 2019, 2020 and 2025 — and scored 0.381 in 2022, the year the dollar hit a twenty-year high while bitcoin lost two-thirds of its value.
The most-watched sentiment gauge in crypto, scored out-of-sample against bitcoin drawdown risk over 3,142 days. Pooled 0.527, average of the years 0.485, and its best year is the most recent one. Here is the full record.
A calibrated model's 30% means 30%. What calibration is, how it differs from ranking skill (AUC), and how to judge a probability forecast fairly.
Credit spreads, the dollar, rates and sentiment describe the world crypto trades in. Whether any of them warns you ahead of time is a separate question.
Direction is close to a coin flip; magnitude and risk are not. Here's why that distinction is the whole point of a risk tool, and how to trade with it.
AUC is a one-number score of how well a model separates risky from calm. Here's what it means in plain language and why an honest tool always shows it.
Markets switch between calm and stormy regimes. Learn what a volatility regime is, why magnitude is more forecastable than direction, and how to use it.
Drawdown risk is the chance of a sharp drop from here. Here's what it means, why it's more useful than a price target, and how to read it before you trade.