Bitcoin drawdown history: every fall of 20% or more since 2017
Since August 2017, bitcoin has fallen 20% or more from a previous high ten times. Nine times it climbed back to that high. The tenth fall started in October 2025 and has not recovered yet.
The two worst falls were 83% (2018) and 77% (2022). Each took more than two years to get back to where it started.
What “drawdown” means here
A drawdown is how far the price is below its highest point so far. If bitcoin peaked at $100 and now trades at $70, the drawdown is 30%.
The drawdown risk in the w4rn app is a different measure: the chance of a sharp drop from today's price (here's why). This post is about the first kind: falls that have already happened.
The full record
Each row is one fall of 20% or more. “Fall” is how far the price went down from the high. “Days to low” is how long the fall lasted. “Gain needed” is how much the price had to rise from the low just to get back to the old high. “Days to recover” counts from the high to the first day bitcoin closed back at or above it.
| High | Low | Fall | Days to low | Gain needed | Days to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2017 | Sep 2017 | −34% | 13 | +52% | 41 |
| Nov 2017 | Nov 2017 | −21% | 8 | +27% | 12 |
| Dec 2017 | Dec 2018 | −83% | 364 | +495% | 1,074 |
| Jan 2021 | Jan 2021 | −25% | 19 | +34% | 31 |
| Feb 2021 | Feb 2021 | −21% | 7 | +27% | 18 |
| Apr 2021 | Jul 2021 | −53% | 98 | +113% | 189 |
| Nov 2021 | Nov 2022 | −77% | 378 | +328% | 847 |
| Mar 2024 | Sep 2024 | −26% | 177 | +35% | 238 |
| Jan 2025 | Apr 2025 | −28% | 77 | +39% | 117 |
| Oct 2025 | Jun 2026* | −53% | 267 | +113% | not yet |
* The lowest close so far. Nobody knows yet whether it was the bottom.
Most falls were short. A few were long.
Six of the ten falls were between 21% and 34%. Each got back to its old high within eight months, and four of them within six weeks.
Four falls went to 53% or deeper, and those took much longer to recover. Counting from the high, the 2021 fall took 189 days, the 2021–22 fall 847 days, and the 2017–18 fall 1,074 days. The current fall is also 53% deep, and 356 days have passed since its high.
Ten falls is a small number. Read this as a description of these nine years, not a rule for the next fall.
Why big falls take so long to undo
A fall and the rise that undoes it are not the same size, because the rise starts from a lower price. If $100 falls 50% to $50, the $50 has to double, a 100% rise, to get back to $100.
- A 20% fall needs a 25% rise.
- A 50% fall needs a 100% rise.
- The 83% fall of 2018 needed a 495% rise: the price had to grow almost six times over from its low.
That is why the deepest falls took years to recover and the shallow ones took weeks.
Bitcoin has spent most of its time below its high
On 72% of the days since August 2017, bitcoin closed at least 20% below its highest price up to that day. On 39% of days it was at least 50% below. It closed at a new high on only 106 of those 3,329 days, about 3%. Most of the time, anyone holding bitcoin was holding it below its best price.
Where the current fall stands (27 September 2026)
- Highest close: $124,659 on 6 October 2025.
- Lowest close since then: $58,625 on 30 June 2026, 53% below the high.
- Close on 27 September 2026: $84,472. That is 44% above the June low and 32% below the high.
- To get back to the high from there, bitcoin needs to rise 48%.
This record can't tell you what happens next. It can't say whether June was the bottom, and nine finished falls are too few to predict the tenth. What it does show is how big a fall bitcoin holders have had to sit through, and for how long. That is worth knowing before you decide how much to hold.
How we measured it
- Prices: Binance's BTC/USDT pair (USDT is a stablecoin designed to track the US dollar), one closing price per day (UTC), 17 August 2017 to 27 September 2026: 3,329 days. Bitcoin's earlier history, including the 2014 bear market, is not in this data. Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
- A fall starts on a day that closed at a new high. It counts once the price closes 20% or more below that high, and ends on the first day it closes at or above the high again. 20% is the common rule of thumb for calling a fall a bear market in stocks.
- Daily closes, not prices during the day. Prices swing further within a day, so measured from the highest to the lowest price traded, each fall was at least as deep as shown here.
For how big bitcoin's day-to-day swings tend to be, and how that changes, see volatility regimes explained.
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